Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 24, 2026
Final tracked odds
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 10 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
What happened: Fake News.
| Outcome | Jul 23 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fake News | — | 88% | — |
| Democrat | — | 82% | — |
| Ballroom | — | 76% | — |
| Hottest | — | 70% | — |
| Stock Market | — | 62% | — |
| 250 | — | 57% | — |
| Communist / Communism | 66% | 56% | ▼ 10 |
| Barack Hussein Obama | — | 55% | — |
| Date | Fake News | Democrat | Ballroom | Hottest | Stock Market | 250 | Communist / Communism | Barack Hussein Obama |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | 88% | 82% | 76% | 70% | 62% | 57% | 56% | 55% |
| 2026-07-23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 66% | — |
| 2026-07-22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-21 | 80% | — | 72% | 59% | 64% | 62% | — | 44% |
| 2026-07-20 | 80% | — | 64% | 66% | 63% | 64% | — | 52% |
| 2026-07-19 | 79% | — | 66% | 59% | 60% | 58% | — | 53% |
| 2026-07-18 | 79% | — | 68% | 63% | 58% | 57% | — | 52% |
| 2026-07-17 | 78% | — | 74% | 63% | 68% | 52% | — | 40% |
| 2026-07-16 | 75% | — | 72% | 66% | 68% | 56% | — | 54% |
| 2026-07-15 | 78% | — | 70% | 66% | 69% | 56% | — | 55% |
| 2026-07-14 | 80% | — | 70% | 66% | 70% | 61% | — | 56% |
| 2026-07-13 | 86% | — | 78% | 65% | 72% | 62% | — | 54% |
| 2026-07-12 | 82% | — | 78% | 63% | 70% | 62% | — | 56% |
| 2026-07-11 | 83% | — | 79% | 70% | 70% | 64% | — | 54% |
| 2026-07-10 | 86% | — | 79% | 70% | 73% | 70% | — | 52% |
| 2026-07-09 | 81% | — | 72% | 70% | 66% | 70% | — | 54% |
| 2026-07-08 | 80% | — | 70% | 70% | 66% | 74% | — | 52% |
| 2026-07-07 | 81% | — | 72% | 68% | 66% | 74% | — | 50% |
| 2026-07-06 * | 87% | — | 63% | 70% | 65% | 71% | — | 47% |
| 2026-07-05 * | 80% | — | 67% | 69% | 68% | 72% | — | 50% |
| 2026-07-04 * | 87% | — | 60% | 77% | 72% | 80% | — | 57% |
| 2026-07-03 * | 84% | — | 58% | 71% | 73% | 79% | — | 62% |
| 2026-07-02 * | 82% | — | 77% | 78% | 74% | 79% | — | 58% |
| 2026-07-01 * | 83% | — | 73% | 72% | 74% | 81% | — | 58% |
| 2026-06-30 * | 81% | — | 74% | 71% | 68% | 75% | — | 64% |
| 2026-06-29 * | 82% | — | 70% | 72% | 68% | 71% | — | 59% |
| 2026-06-28 * | 82% | — | 67% | 71% | 78% | 63% | — | 49% |
| 2026-06-27 * | 77% | — | 76% | 78% | 62% | 68% | — | 59% |
| 2026-06-26 * | 91% | — | 83% | 79% | 79% | 84% | — | 63% |
| 2026-06-25 * | 87% | — | 75% | 81% | 84% | 76% | — | 61% |
| 2026-06-24 * | 87% | — | 83% | 76% | 85% | 84% | — | 61% |
| 2026-06-23 * | 86% | — | 85% | 65% | 70% | 72% | — | 69% |
| 2026-06-22 * | 89% | — | 61% | 58% | 67% | 57% | — | 67% |
| 2026-06-21 * | 87% | — | 61% | 66% | 64% | 68% | — | 65% |
| 2026-06-20 * | 90% | — | 81% | 67% | 76% | 85% | — | 70% |
| 2026-06-19 * | 85% | — | 88% | 69% | 62% | 87% | — | 66% |
| 2026-06-18 * | 85% | — | 91% | 73% | 68% | 88% | — | 65% |
| 2026-06-17 * | 82% | — | 88% | 79% | — | 86% | — | 59% |
| 2026-06-16 * | 88% | — | 84% | 74% | 80% | 75% | — | 63% |
| 2026-06-15 * | 87% | — | 85% | 78% | 76% | 42% | — | 66% |
| 2026-06-14 * | 90% | — | 87% | 71% | 82% | 70% | — | 52% |
| 2026-06-13 * | 90% | — | 90% | 79% | 65% | 85% | — | 59% |
| 2026-06-12 * | 88% | — | 79% | 75% | 62% | 68% | — | 49% |
| 2026-06-11 * | 88% | — | 80% | 60% | 64% | 77% | — | 74% |
| 2026-06-10 * | 82% | — | 79% | 82% | 63% | 72% | — | 76% |
| 2026-06-09 * | 55% | — | 90% | 65% | 31% | 85% | — | 85% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026” for 16 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 24, 2026, Fake News leads the field at 88%. The final tracked chance for Fake News has risen from 81% to 88%, ranging between 75% and 88% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 24, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.