Final tracked odds
As of July 28, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 99.7%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 28, 2026
99.7%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 26 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Clayton | 98.6% | 99.7% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Jay Clayton |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | 99.7% |
| 2026-07-26 | 98.6% |
| 2026-07-25 | 98% |
| 2026-07-24 | 98% |
| 2026-07-21 | 96% |
| 2026-07-20 | 96% |
| 2026-07-19 | 96% |
| 2026-07-18 | 96% |
| 2026-07-17 | 95% |
| 2026-07-16 | 96% |
| 2026-07-15 | 97% |
| 2026-07-14 | 94% |
| 2026-07-13 | 93% |
| 2026-07-12 | 94% |
| 2026-07-11 | 94% |
| 2026-07-10 | 94% |
| 2026-07-09 | 91% |
| 2026-07-08 | 88% |
| 2026-07-07 | 85% |
| 2026-07-06 * | 86% |
| 2026-07-05 * | 86% |
| 2026-07-04 * | 85% |
| 2026-07-03 * | 84% |
| 2026-07-02 * | 84% |
| 2026-07-01 * | 76% |
| 2026-06-30 * | 77% |
| 2026-06-29 * | 78% |
| 2026-06-28 * | 72% |
| 2026-06-27 * | 78% |
| 2026-06-26 * | 77% |
| 2026-06-25 * | 78% |
| 2026-06-24 * | 80% |
| 2026-06-23 * | 82% |
| 2026-06-22 * | 83% |
| 2026-06-21 * | 71% |
| 2026-06-20 * | 68% |
| 2026-06-19 * | 74% |
| 2026-06-18 * | 79% |
| 2026-06-17 * | 98.8% |
| 2026-06-16 * | 96% |
| 2026-06-15 * | 95% |
| 2026-06-14 * | 93% |
| 2026-06-13 * | 94% |
| 2026-06-12 * | 93% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, July 28, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 99.7%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 19 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 85% on July 7, 2026 to 99.7% on July 28, 2026 — a change of 15 points.
- Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 19 tracked days the odds ranged between 85% and 99.7%. The final reading of 99.7% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence” for 19 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 28, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 99.7%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 85% to 99.7%, ranging between 85% and 99.7% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 28, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.