The Morning Line

Will Aaron Rai win the The Open Championship?

Golf · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 16, 2026

0.9%

Final tracked odds

As of July 16, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.9%.

Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 0.9% on July 16, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

tracking begins0%25%50%75%100%Jun 22Jun 28Jul 4Jul 10Jul 16Aaron Rai — Jun 22: 2%Aaron Rai — Jun 23: 2%Aaron Rai — Jun 24: 2%Aaron Rai — Jun 25: 1.0%Aaron Rai — Jun 26: 2%Aaron Rai — Jun 27: 2%Aaron Rai — Jun 28: 2%Aaron Rai — Jun 29: 1.2%Aaron Rai — Jun 30: 2%Aaron Rai — Jul 1: 2%Aaron Rai — Jul 2: 2%Aaron Rai — Jul 3: 1.0%Aaron Rai — Jul 4: 1.4%Aaron Rai — Jul 5: 1.2%Aaron Rai — Jul 6: 1.2%Aaron Rai — Jul 7: 1.1%Aaron Rai — Jul 8: 1.1%Aaron Rai — Jul 9: 1.1%Aaron Rai — Jul 10: 1.1%Aaron Rai — Jul 11: 1.1%Aaron Rai — Jul 12: 2%Aaron Rai — Jul 13: 1.2%Aaron Rai — Jul 14: 1.1%Aaron Rai — Jul 15: 1.2%Aaron Rai — Jul 16: 0.9%0.9%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 15TodayMove
Aaron Rai1.2%0.9%—
Full history table
DateAaron Rai
2026-07-160.9%
2026-07-151.2%
2026-07-141.1%
2026-07-131.2%
2026-07-122%
2026-07-111.1%
2026-07-101.1%
2026-07-091.1%
2026-07-081.1%
2026-07-071.1%
2026-07-06 *1.2%
2026-07-05 *1.2%
2026-07-04 *1.4%
2026-07-03 *1.0%
2026-07-02 *2%
2026-07-01 *2%
2026-06-30 *2%
2026-06-29 *1.2%
2026-06-28 *2%
2026-06-27 *2%
2026-06-26 *2%
2026-06-25 *1.0%
2026-06-24 *2%
2026-06-23 *2%
2026-06-22 *2%

* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Aaron Rai win the The Open Championship — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, July 16, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.9%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Aaron Rai win the The Open Championship — how much did the odds move?
Barely. Across 10 tracked days the odds held near 1.1%, ending at 0.9% on July 16, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Aaron Rai win the The Open Championship” for 10 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 16, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.9%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 1.1% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 16, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

Related questions

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.