Today’s odds
As of August 9, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since August 1, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
6%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 8 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | 6% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | 6% |
| 2026-08-08 | 7% |
| 2026-08-07 | 7% |
| 2026-08-06 | 8% |
| 2026-08-05 | 8% |
| 2026-08-04 | 8% |
| 2026-08-03 | 9% |
| 2026-08-02 | 9% |
| 2026-08-01 | 9% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of August 9, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 9 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 9% on August 1, 2026 to 6% on August 9, 2026 — a change of 3 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026” for 9 days, since August 1, 2026. As of August 9, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 9% to 6%, ranging between 6% and 9% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.