NBA · tracked since July 8, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 23, 2026
Final tracked odds
▼ 17 since the previous update. ▼ 62 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
What happened: The market said 26% on July 23, 2026. Before Jul 26, 2026 won.
| Outcome | Jul 22 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 26, 2026 | 34% | 16% | ▼ 17 |
| Date | Before Jul 26, 2026 |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | 16% |
| 2026-07-22 | 34% |
| 2026-07-21 | 62% |
| 2026-07-20 | 82% |
| 2026-07-19 | 80% |
| 2026-07-18 | 79% |
| 2026-07-17 | 80% |
| 2026-07-16 | 78% |
| 2026-07-15 | 78% |
| 2026-07-14 | 84% |
| 2026-07-13 | 78% |
| 2026-07-12 | 64% |
| 2026-07-11 | 64% |
| 2026-07-10 | 62% |
| 2026-07-09 | 78% |
| 2026-07-08 | 78% |
| 2026-07-07 * | 75% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will any Source Agency announce that LeBron James is joining any NBA team after Issuance and before Jul 26, 2026” for 16 days, since July 8, 2026. As of July 23, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 16%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 78% to 16%, ranging between 16% and 84% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 23, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.