Final tracked odds
As of July 28, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 93%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Ariana Grande be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in July 2026?
Culture · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 28, 2026
93%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 27 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ariana Grande | 92% | 93% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Ariana Grande |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | 93% |
| 2026-07-27 | 92% |
| 2026-07-26 | 90% |
| 2026-07-25 | 92% |
| 2026-07-24 | 91% |
| 2026-07-23 | 90% |
| 2026-07-21 | 92% |
| 2026-07-20 | 92% |
| 2026-07-19 | 92% |
| 2026-07-18 | 90% |
| 2026-07-17 | 92% |
| 2026-07-16 | 90% |
| 2026-07-15 | 91% |
| 2026-07-14 | 90% |
| 2026-07-13 | 94% |
| 2026-07-12 | 88% |
| 2026-07-11 | 96% |
| 2026-07-10 | 94% |
| 2026-07-09 | 94% |
| 2026-07-08 | 92% |
| 2026-07-07 | 90% |
| 2026-07-06 * | 88% |
| 2026-07-05 * | 92% |
| 2026-07-04 * | 88% |
| 2026-07-03 * | 87% |
| 2026-07-02 * | 85% |
| 2026-07-01 * | 76% |
| 2026-06-30 * | 77% |
| 2026-06-29 * | 77% |
| 2026-06-28 * | 94% |
| 2026-06-27 * | 96% |
| 2026-06-26 * | 95% |
| 2026-06-25 * | 72% |
| 2026-06-24 * | 70% |
| 2026-06-23 * | 0% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Ariana Grande be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in July 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, July 28, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 93%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Ariana Grande be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in July 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 21 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 90% on July 7, 2026 to 93% on July 28, 2026 — a change of 3 points.
- Will Ariana Grande be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in July 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 21 tracked days the odds ranged between 88% and 96%. The final reading of 93% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Ariana Grande be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in July 2026” for 21 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 28, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 93%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 90% to 93%, ranging between 88% and 96% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 28, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.