Final tracked odds
As of September 20, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 4%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 19, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 20, 2026
4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 8 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 4% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 4% |
| 2026-09-08 | 5% |
| 2026-09-05 | 5% |
| 2026-09-02 | 6% |
| 2026-09-01 | 6% |
| 2026-08-31 | 6% |
| 2026-08-30 | 6% |
| 2026-08-06 | 6% |
| 2026-08-05 | 5% |
| 2026-07-19 | 6% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 20, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 10 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 6% on July 19, 2026 to 4% on September 20, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026” for 10 days, since July 19, 2026. As of September 20, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 4%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 6% to 4%, ranging between 4% and 6% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 20, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.