Final tracked odds
As of September 10, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 14%.
▲ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 10, 2026
14%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 9 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 14% | ▲ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | 14% |
| 2026-09-09 | 12% |
| 2026-09-08 | 10% |
| 2026-09-07 | 10% |
| 2026-09-06 | 10% |
| 2026-09-05 | 10% |
| 2026-09-04 | 10% |
| 2026-09-03 | 12% |
| 2026-09-02 | 12% |
| 2026-09-01 | 12% |
| 2026-07-11 | 10% |
| 2026-07-10 | 12% |
| 2026-07-09 | 12% |
| 2026-07-08 | 10% |
| 2026-07-07 | 8% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 10, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 14%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 15 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 8% on July 7, 2026 to 14% on September 10, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 15 tracked days the odds ranged between 8% and 14%. The final reading of 14% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31” for 15 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 10, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 14%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 8% to 14%, ranging between 8% and 14% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 10, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.