Today’s odds
As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 12%.
▲ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
12%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 12% | ▲ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 12% |
| 2026-07-11 | 10% |
| 2026-07-10 | 12% |
| 2026-07-09 | 12% |
| 2026-07-08 | 10% |
| 2026-07-07 | 8% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31 — what are the odds?
- As of August 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 12%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 8% on July 7, 2026 to 12% on August 31, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31” for 6 days, since July 7, 2026. As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 12%. The chance for a yes has risen from 8% to 12%, ranging between 8% and 12% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.