The Morning Line

Will Hideki Matsuyama win the The Open Championship?

Golf · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 18, 2026

0.4%

Final tracked odds

As of July 18, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.4%.

Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 0.2% on July 18, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

tracking begins0%25%50%75%100%Jun 22Jun 28Jul 5Jul 12Jul 18Hideki Matsuyama — Jun 22: 1.0%Hideki Matsuyama — Jun 23: 2%Hideki Matsuyama — Jun 24: 2%Hideki Matsuyama — Jun 25: 1.1%Hideki Matsuyama — Jun 26: 0%Hideki Matsuyama — Jun 27: 1.1%Hideki Matsuyama — Jun 28: 1.1%Hideki Matsuyama — Jun 29: 2%Hideki Matsuyama — Jun 30: 2%Hideki Matsuyama — Jul 1: 2%Hideki Matsuyama — Jul 2: 1.4%Hideki Matsuyama — Jul 3: 1.0%Hideki Matsuyama — Jul 4: 1.0%Hideki Matsuyama — Jul 5: 1.0%Hideki Matsuyama — Jul 6: 2%Hideki Matsuyama — Jul 7: 1.0%Hideki Matsuyama — Jul 8: 0.9%Hideki Matsuyama — Jul 9: 0.9%Hideki Matsuyama — Jul 10: 0.9%Hideki Matsuyama — Jul 11: 0.9%Hideki Matsuyama — Jul 12: 0.9%Hideki Matsuyama — Jul 13: 0.9%Hideki Matsuyama — Jul 14: 0.9%Hideki Matsuyama — Jul 15: 0.9%Hideki Matsuyama — Jul 16: 0.1%Hideki Matsuyama — Jul 17: 0.2%Hideki Matsuyama — Jul 18: 0.4%0.4%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 17TodayMove
Hideki Matsuyama0.2%0.4%—
Full history table
DateHideki Matsuyama
2026-07-180.4%
2026-07-170.2%
2026-07-160.1%
2026-07-150.9%
2026-07-140.9%
2026-07-130.9%
2026-07-120.9%
2026-07-110.9%
2026-07-100.9%
2026-07-090.9%
2026-07-080.9%
2026-07-071.0%
2026-07-06 *2%
2026-07-05 *1.0%
2026-07-04 *1.0%
2026-07-03 *1.0%
2026-07-02 *1.4%
2026-07-01 *2%
2026-06-30 *2%
2026-06-29 *2%
2026-06-28 *1.1%
2026-06-27 *1.1%
2026-06-26 *0%
2026-06-25 *1.1%
2026-06-24 *2%
2026-06-23 *2%
2026-06-22 *1.0%

* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Hideki Matsuyama win the The Open Championship — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, July 18, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the The Open Championship — how much did the odds move?
Barely. Across 12 tracked days the odds held near 1.0%, ending at 0.4% on July 18, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Hideki Matsuyama win the The Open Championship” for 12 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 18, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.4%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 1.0% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 18, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

Related questions

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.