The Morning Line

Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the The Open Championship?

Golf · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 16, 2026

2%

Final tracked odds

As of July 16, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.

▼ 3 since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 5% on July 16, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

tracking begins0%25%50%75%100%Jun 22Jun 28Jul 4Jul 10Jul 16Matt Fitzpatrick — Jun 22: 5%Matt Fitzpatrick — Jun 23: 4%Matt Fitzpatrick — Jun 24: 4%Matt Fitzpatrick — Jun 25: 4%Matt Fitzpatrick — Jun 26: 4%Matt Fitzpatrick — Jun 27: 4%Matt Fitzpatrick — Jun 28: 4%Matt Fitzpatrick — Jun 29: 5%Matt Fitzpatrick — Jun 30: 5%Matt Fitzpatrick — Jul 1: 5%Matt Fitzpatrick — Jul 2: 5%Matt Fitzpatrick — Jul 3: 5%Matt Fitzpatrick — Jul 4: 5%Matt Fitzpatrick — Jul 5: 5%Matt Fitzpatrick — Jul 6: 5%Matt Fitzpatrick — Jul 7: 4%Matt Fitzpatrick — Jul 8: 4%Matt Fitzpatrick — Jul 9: 4%Matt Fitzpatrick — Jul 10: 4%Matt Fitzpatrick — Jul 11: 5%Matt Fitzpatrick — Jul 12: 5%Matt Fitzpatrick — Jul 13: 5%Matt Fitzpatrick — Jul 14: 5%Matt Fitzpatrick — Jul 15: 5%Matt Fitzpatrick — Jul 16: 2%2%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 15TodayMove
Matt Fitzpatrick5%2%▼ 3
Full history table
DateMatt Fitzpatrick
2026-07-162%
2026-07-155%
2026-07-145%
2026-07-135%
2026-07-125%
2026-07-115%
2026-07-104%
2026-07-094%
2026-07-084%
2026-07-074%
2026-07-06 *5%
2026-07-05 *5%
2026-07-04 *5%
2026-07-03 *5%
2026-07-02 *5%
2026-07-01 *5%
2026-06-30 *5%
2026-06-29 *5%
2026-06-28 *4%
2026-06-27 *4%
2026-06-26 *4%
2026-06-25 *4%
2026-06-24 *4%
2026-06-23 *4%
2026-06-22 *5%

* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the The Open Championship — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, July 16, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the The Open Championship — did the odds go up or down?
Down. Over the 10 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 4% on July 7, 2026 to 2% on July 16, 2026 — a change of 2 points.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the The Open Championship” for 10 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 16, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 4% to 2%, ranging between 2% and 5% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 16, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

Related questions

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.