Final tracked odds
As of August 17, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 8%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Max Miller be out as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 28, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 17, 2026
8%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 16 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 3, 2026 | 8% | 8% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Before Nov 3, 2026 |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | 8% |
| 2026-08-16 | 8% |
| 2026-08-11 | 10% |
| 2026-08-10 | 12% |
| 2026-08-09 | 10% |
| 2026-08-08 | 22% |
| 2026-08-07 | 26% |
| 2026-08-06 | 26% |
| 2026-08-05 | 34% |
| 2026-08-04 | 32% |
| 2026-08-03 | 12% |
| 2026-08-02 | 20% |
| 2026-08-01 | 16% |
| 2026-07-31 | 16% |
| 2026-07-30 | 16% |
| 2026-07-29 | 24% |
| 2026-07-28 | 22% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Max Miller be out as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 17, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 8%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Max Miller be out as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 17 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 22% on July 28, 2026 to 8% on August 17, 2026 — a change of 14 points.
- Will Max Miller be out as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 17 tracked days the odds ranged between 8% and 34%. The final reading of 8% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Max Miller be out as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026” for 17 days, since July 28, 2026. As of August 17, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 8%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 22% to 8%, ranging between 8% and 34% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 17, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.