Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 12, 2026
Final tracked odds
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
What happened: The market said 2% on July 12, 2026. It didn't happen.
| Outcome | Jul 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Melanie and Sincere | 4% | 2% | ▼ 2 |
| Date | Melanie and Sincere |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | 2% |
| 2026-07-11 | 4% |
| 2026-07-10 | 2% |
| 2026-07-09 | 2% |
| 2026-07-08 | 4% |
| 2026-07-07 | 2% |
| 2026-07-06 * | 5% |
| 2026-07-05 * | 2% |
| 2026-07-04 * | 4% |
| 2026-07-03 * | 3% |
| 2026-07-02 * | 1.0% |
| 2026-07-01 * | 3% |
| 2026-06-30 * | 3% |
| 2026-06-29 * | 2% |
| 2026-06-28 * | 3% |
| 2026-06-27 * | 3% |
| 2026-06-26 * | 6% |
| 2026-06-25 * | 10% |
| 2026-06-24 * | 14% |
| 2026-06-23 * | 21% |
| 2026-06-22 * | 19% |
| 2026-06-21 * | 20% |
| 2026-06-20 * | 12% |
| 2026-06-19 * | 16% |
| 2026-06-18 * | 15% |
| 2026-06-17 * | 19% |
| 2026-06-16 * | 6% |
| 2026-06-15 * | 5% |
| 2026-06-14 * | 6% |
| 2026-06-13 * | 5% |
| 2026-06-12 * | 3% |
| 2026-06-11 * | 3% |
| 2026-06-10 * | 4% |
| 2026-06-09 * | 6% |
| 2026-06-08 * | 10% |
| 2026-06-07 * | 1.0% |
| 2026-06-06 * | 5% |
| 2026-06-05 * | 21% |
| 2026-06-04 * | 49% |
| 2026-06-03 * | 40% |
| 2026-06-02 * | 1.0% |
| 2026-06-01 * | 0% |
| 2026-05-31 * | 0% |
| 2026-05-30 * | 0% |
| 2026-05-29 * | 0% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Melanie and Sincere win Love Island USA Season 8” for 6 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 2%, ranging between 2% and 4% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 12, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.