The Morning Line

Will Tommy Fleetwood win the The Open Championship?

Golf · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 19, 2026

0.3%

Final tracked odds

As of July 19, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.3%.

▼ 12 since the previous update. ▼ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 3% on July 19, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

tracking begins0%25%50%75%100%Jun 22Jun 29Jul 6Jul 12Jul 19Tommy Fleetwood — Jun 22: 7%Tommy Fleetwood — Jun 23: 6%Tommy Fleetwood — Jun 24: 6%Tommy Fleetwood — Jun 25: 6%Tommy Fleetwood — Jun 26: 4%Tommy Fleetwood — Jun 27: 6%Tommy Fleetwood — Jun 28: 6%Tommy Fleetwood — Jun 29: 5%Tommy Fleetwood — Jun 30: 6%Tommy Fleetwood — Jul 1: 6%Tommy Fleetwood — Jul 2: 5%Tommy Fleetwood — Jul 3: 6%Tommy Fleetwood — Jul 4: 6%Tommy Fleetwood — Jul 5: 6%Tommy Fleetwood — Jul 6: 6%Tommy Fleetwood — Jul 7: 5%Tommy Fleetwood — Jul 8: 5%Tommy Fleetwood — Jul 9: 5%Tommy Fleetwood — Jul 10: 5%Tommy Fleetwood — Jul 11: 4%Tommy Fleetwood — Jul 12: 4%Tommy Fleetwood — Jul 13: 5%Tommy Fleetwood — Jul 14: 6%Tommy Fleetwood — Jul 15: 6%Tommy Fleetwood — Jul 16: 4%Tommy Fleetwood — Jul 17: 5%Tommy Fleetwood — Jul 18: 12%Tommy Fleetwood — Jul 19: 0.3%0.3%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 18TodayMove
Tommy Fleetwood12%0.3%▼ 12
Full history table
DateTommy Fleetwood
2026-07-190.3%
2026-07-1812%
2026-07-175%
2026-07-164%
2026-07-156%
2026-07-146%
2026-07-135%
2026-07-124%
2026-07-114%
2026-07-105%
2026-07-095%
2026-07-085%
2026-07-075%
2026-07-06 *6%
2026-07-05 *6%
2026-07-04 *6%
2026-07-03 *6%
2026-07-02 *5%
2026-07-01 *6%
2026-06-30 *6%
2026-06-29 *5%
2026-06-28 *6%
2026-06-27 *6%
2026-06-26 *4%
2026-06-25 *6%
2026-06-24 *6%
2026-06-23 *6%
2026-06-22 *7%

* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Tommy Fleetwood win the The Open Championship — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, July 19, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the The Open Championship — did the odds go up or down?
Down. Over the 13 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 5% on July 7, 2026 to 0.3% on July 19, 2026 — a change of 5 points.
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the The Open Championship — what were the highest and lowest odds?
Over 13 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.3% and 12%. The final reading of 0.3% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Tommy Fleetwood win the The Open Championship” for 13 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 19, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.3%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 5% to 0.3%, ranging between 0.3% and 12% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 19, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

Related questions

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.