Today’s odds
As of November 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.1%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since September 5, 2026 · last updated 2:40 PM ET
0.1%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 | 0.1% |
| 2026-11-05 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-04 | 0.2% |
| 2026-10-03 | 0.3% |
| 2026-10-02 | 0.3% |
| 2026-10-01 | 0.3% |
| 2026-09-20 | 0.5% |
| 2026-09-19 | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.7% |
| 2026-09-12 | 0.7% |
| 2026-09-08 | 0.5% |
| 2026-09-07 | 0.5% |
| 2026-09-06 | 0.5% |
| 2026-09-05 | 0.5% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of November 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026 — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 14 tracked days the odds held near 0.5%, ending at 0.1% on November 6, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026” for 14 days, since September 5, 2026. As of November 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.1%. The chance for a yes has held near 0.5% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.