Edition of July 11, 2026

Edition of July 11, 2026 · built from 8,598 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 11:40 AM ET.

76%

Today’s Number

Will Hae-Ran Ryu win the The Amundi Evian Championship?

Market-consensus odds put Hae-Ran Ryu at 76% this morning. · ▲ 60 points overnight

What changed

Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.

Forecast		Odds
Will average gas prices be above $3.900? Above 3.900	Everything Else	4% ▼ 81 7d: ▲ 1
Will Linda Noskova win set 1 in the Karolina Muchova vs Linda Noskova match Linda Noskova	Tennis	98% ▲ 50 7d: ▲ 50
Will Hae-Ran Ryu win the The Amundi Evian Championship? Hae-Ran Ryu	Everything Else	76% ▲ 60 7d: ▲ 73
England vs India Winner? India	Sports	6% ▼ 39 7d: ▼ 39
#2 Global Netflix Show on Jul 13, 2026? Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 1	Culture	88% ▲ 56 7d: ▲ 69
Will NRG win the NRG vs. BBL Esports Valorant match? NRG	Sports	24% ▼ 37 7d: ▼ 37
Rain in Dallas in Jul 2026? Above 3 inches	Everything Else	10% ▼ 42 7d: ▼ 20
Will CONFESSIONS II by Madonna have above 130000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 03, 2026 - July 09, 2026 tracking week? Above 130K	Culture	96% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 89
Will the CAC 40 be at least €8,650 in July 2026? At least €8,650	Everything Else	16% ▼ 60 7d: ▼ 47
Will Chase advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final Chase	World Cup	18% ▼ 54 7d: ▼ 54

Still open

The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.

Forecast		Odds
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Erling Haaland: 1+ · settles today	World Cup	46% — 7d: ▼ 2
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 8 days	World Cup	38% — 7d: ▲ 5
Norway vs England: To Advance Norway advances · settles today	World Cup	36% ▲ 1
Will Rory McIlroy win the Genesis Scottish Open? Rory McIlroy · settles today	Golf	32% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 23
Will Conor McGregor win the Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway professional MMA fight scheduled for Jul 11, 2026? Conor McGregor · settles today	UFC	30% ▼ 5 7d: ▼ 6
Argentina vs Switzerland: To Advance Argentina advances · settles today	World Cup	74% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 8 days	World Cup	21% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 2
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 8 days	World Cup	18% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 1
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 172 days	Everything Else	14% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 2
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 8 days	World Cup	14% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 2

Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.

Forecast		Likelihood
England vs India Winner? England · settles today	Sports	94.5% ▲ 37 7d: ▲ 37
Will Linda Noskova win set 1 in the Karolina Muchova vs Linda Noskova match Linda Noskova · settles today	Tennis	97.5% ▲ 50 7d: ▲ 50
Will the high temp in NYC be <81° on Jul 11, 2026? 80° or below · settles today	News	93.5% —
The Invite Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 94 · settles tomorrow	Culture	98.5% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 13
Will New York Knicks win Best Team award at the 2026 ESPYS? New York Knicks · settles in 6 days	Everything Else	94.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 4
Top Coding AI this week? Claude · settles tomorrow	Everything Else	95.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 1
Moana Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 32 · settles tomorrow	Culture	95.0% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2
Will the natural gas close price be above 1.999 USD/MMBtu on July 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $1.999 · settles in 6 days	Commodities	98.5% —
Will the minimum temperature be >68° on Jul 11, 2026? 69° or above · settles tomorrow	News	93.0% —
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 68.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 13, 2026? Above $68.99 · settles in 2 days	Commodities	93.5% —