Edition of July 14, 2026 · built from 9,329 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 12:50 PM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Connecticut wins by over 6.5 points at 20% this morning. · ▼ 52 points since this morning
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Adhithya Ganesan win the Ganesan vs Zink: Round Of 32 match? Adhithya Ganesan | Tennis | 8% ▼ 80 |
| Connecticut wins by over 6.5 points Connecticut wins by over 6.5 points | WNBA | 20% ▼ 52 |
| Will Maxime St-Hilaire win the St-Hilaire vs Guerrero Alvarez: M15 Rochester NY Round of 16 match? Maxime St-Hilaire | Tennis | 98% ▲ 43 |
| What will Domino's Pizza, Inc. say during their next earnings call? Soccer / World Cup | Everything Else | 68% ▲ 60 7d: ▲ 23 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7534.9999 on Jul 14, 2026 at 1pm EDT? 7,535 or above | Markets | 79% ▲ 50 |
| Will Panna Udvardy win the Udvardy vs Romero Gormaz: Round Of 32 match? Panna Udvardy | Tennis | 38% ▼ 38 |
| Portland vs Connecticut winner? Portland | WNBA | 40% ▲ 29 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Kuopion Palloseura vs FK Vardar Skopje Winner? Reg Time: FK Vardar Skopje | Champions League | 92% ▲ 37 7d: ▲ 76 |
| Portland vs Connecticut Over 172.5 points scored | WNBA | 88% ▲ 32 |
| Will both teams score? Reg Time: Both Teams To Score | Champions League | 18% ▼ 39 7d: ▼ 40 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| England vs Argentina: To Advance Argentina advances · settles tomorrow | World Cup | 46% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| France vs Spain: To Advance France advances · settles today | World Cup | 57% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 1 |
| France vs Spain Winner? Reg Time: France · settles today | World Cup | 40% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 5 days | World Cup | 38% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will France play Argentina in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final? France vs Argentina · settles in 5 days | World Cup | 28% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
| England vs India Winner? India · settles today | Sports | 76% ▲ 26 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 5 days | World Cup | 23% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 5 days | World Cup | 21% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 169 days | Everything Else | 20% — 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 5 days | World Cup | 17% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Maxime St-Hilaire win the St-Hilaire vs Guerrero Alvarez: M15 Rochester NY Round of 16 match? Maxime St-Hilaire · settles today | Tennis | 97.5% — |
| Will Roman Andres Burruchaga win the Cecchinato vs Burruchaga: Round Of 32 match? Roman Andres Burruchaga · settles today | Tennis | 96.5% — |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? Yes · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 99.2% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 77.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 14, 2026? Above $77.49 · settles today | Commodities | 96.5% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 88 |
| Will The Real Me by Future have above 120000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 10, 2026 -July 16, 2026 tracking week? Above 120K · settles in 5 days | Culture | 96.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 7 |
| The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 87 · settles in 6 days | Culture | 95.5% ▲ 16 7d: ▲ 21 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 76.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 14, 2026? Above $76.99 · settles today | Commodities | 97.5% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7474.9999 on Jul 14, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,475 or above · settles today | Markets | 98.5% — |
| Best AI this week Claude · settles in 6 days | Everything Else | 98.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7529.9999 on Jul 14, 2026 at 1pm EDT? 7,530 or above · settles today | Markets | 94.0% — |