World Cup · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 14, 2026
Final tracked odds
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
What happened: The market said 28% on July 14, 2026. It didn't happen.
| Outcome | Jul 13 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| France vs Argentina | 28% | 28% | — |
| Date | France vs Argentina |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | 28% |
| 2026-07-13 | 28% |
| 2026-07-12 | 28% |
| 2026-07-11 | 25% |
| 2026-07-10 | 28% |
| 2026-07-09 | 24% |
| 2026-07-08 | 25% |
| 2026-07-07 | 24% |
| 2026-07-06 * | 25% |
| 2026-07-05 * | 28% |
| 2026-07-04 * | 35% |
| 2026-07-03 * | 25% |
| 2026-07-02 * | 35% |
| 2026-07-01 * | 19% |
| 2026-06-30 * | 99.0% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will France play Argentina in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final” for 8 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 14, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 28%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 24% to 28%, ranging between 24% and 28% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 14, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.