Will France win the third-place match at the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup — did the odds go up or down?

Up. Over the 12 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 17% on July 7, 2026 to 68% on July 18, 2026 — a change of 51 points.

Will France win the third-place match at the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 12 tracked days the odds ranged between 17% and 68%. The final reading of 68% sits at the top of that range.

Will France win the third-place match at the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will France win the third-place match at the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

World Cup · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 18, 2026

68%

Final tracked odds

As of July 18, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 68%.

▲ 4 since the previous update. ▲ 40 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 66% on July 18, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Jul 17	Today	Move
France	64%	68%	▲ 4

Full history table

Date	France
2026-07-18	68%
2026-07-17	64%
2026-07-16	62%
2026-07-15	64%
2026-07-14	26%
2026-07-13	25%
2026-07-12	24%
2026-07-11	27%
2026-07-10	21%
2026-07-09	18%
2026-07-08	18%
2026-07-07	17%
2026-07-06 *	18%
2026-07-05 *	17%
2026-07-04 *	21%
2026-07-03 *	12%
2026-07-02 *	21%
2026-07-01 *	21%
2026-06-30 *	18%
2026-06-29 *	12%
2026-06-28 *	19%
2026-06-27 *	21%
2026-06-26 *	17%
2026-06-25 *	20%
2026-06-24 *	19%
2026-06-23 *	21%
2026-06-22 *	8%
2026-06-21 *	12%
2026-06-20 *	19%
2026-06-19 *	19%
2026-06-18 *	18%
2026-06-17 *	13%
2026-06-16 *	12%
2026-06-15 *	22%
2026-06-14 *	13%
2026-06-13 *	12%
2026-06-12 *	16%
2026-06-11 *	15%
2026-06-10 *	15%
2026-06-09 *	16%
2026-06-08 *	16%
2026-06-07 *	11%
2026-06-06 *	13%
2026-06-05 *	13%
2026-06-04 *	16%
2026-06-03 *	0%

* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will France win the third-place match at the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, July 18, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 68%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will France win the third-place match at the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup — did the odds go up or down?: Up. Over the 12 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 17% on July 7, 2026 to 68% on July 18, 2026 — a change of 51 points.
Will France win the third-place match at the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 12 tracked days the odds ranged between 17% and 68%. The final reading of 68% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will France win the third-place match at the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup” for 12 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 18, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 68%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 17% to 68%, ranging between 17% and 68% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 18, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.