Today’s odds
As of August 27, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 28%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
28%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 26 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 29% | 28% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | 28% |
| 2026-08-26 | 29% |
| 2026-08-25 | 29% |
| 2026-08-24 | 29% |
| 2026-08-23 | 27% |
| 2026-08-22 | 27% |
| 2026-08-21 | 26% |
| 2026-08-20 | 25% |
| 2026-08-19 | 24% |
| 2026-08-18 | 24% |
| 2026-08-17 | 30% |
| 2026-08-16 | 28% |
| 2026-08-15 | 32% |
| 2026-08-14 | 33% |
| 2026-08-13 | 27% |
| 2026-08-12 | 36% |
| 2026-07-31 | 28% |
| 2026-07-30 | 26% |
| 2026-07-29 | 26% |
| 2026-07-28 | 26% |
| 2026-07-27 | 26% |
| 2026-07-26 | 26% |
| 2026-07-25 | 27% |
| 2026-07-24 | 24% |
| 2026-07-23 | 24% |
| 2026-07-22 | 24% |
| 2026-07-19 | 24% |
| 2026-07-18 | 25% |
| 2026-07-17 | 26% |
| 2026-07-16 | 26% |
| 2026-07-15 | 26% |
| 2026-07-14 | 26% |
| 2026-07-13 | 26% |
| 2026-07-11 | 28% |
| 2026-07-10 | 26% |
| 2026-07-09 | 28% |
| 2026-07-07 | 26% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- 5kt meteor strike in 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of August 27, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 28%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- 5kt meteor strike in 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 37 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 26% on July 7, 2026 to 28% on August 27, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
- 5kt meteor strike in 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 37 tracked days the odds ranged between 24% and 36%. The current reading of 28% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “5kt meteor strike in 2026” for 37 days, since July 7, 2026. As of August 27, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 28%. The chance for a yes has risen from 26% to 28%, ranging between 24% and 36% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.