Final tracked odds
As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 3%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since July 12, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 30, 2026
3%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 29 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 3% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 3% |
| 2026-09-29 | 3% |
| 2026-09-28 | 3% |
| 2026-09-27 | 3% |
| 2026-09-26 | 3% |
| 2026-09-25 | 3% |
| 2026-09-24 | 3% |
| 2026-09-23 | 3% |
| 2026-09-22 | 3% |
| 2026-09-21 | 3% |
| 2026-09-20 | 3% |
| 2026-09-19 | 3% |
| 2026-09-18 | 3% |
| 2026-09-17 | 3% |
| 2026-09-16 | 3% |
| 2026-09-15 | 4% |
| 2026-09-14 | 5% |
| 2026-09-13 | 5% |
| 2026-09-12 | 5% |
| 2026-09-11 | 5% |
| 2026-09-10 | 5% |
| 2026-09-09 | 5% |
| 2026-09-08 | 5% |
| 2026-09-07 | 6% |
| 2026-09-06 | 6% |
| 2026-09-05 | 6% |
| 2026-09-04 | 6% |
| 2026-09-03 | 7% |
| 2026-09-02 | 6% |
| 2026-09-01 | 7% |
| 2026-08-28 | 7% |
| 2026-08-26 | 6% |
| 2026-08-25 | 6% |
| 2026-08-24 | 6% |
| 2026-08-18 | 6% |
| 2026-08-17 | 7% |
| 2026-08-16 | 7% |
| 2026-08-15 | 7% |
| 2026-08-14 | 6% |
| 2026-08-13 | 6% |
| 2026-08-12 | 6% |
| 2026-08-11 | 6% |
| 2026-08-10 | 6% |
| 2026-08-09 | 6% |
| 2026-08-08 | 6% |
| 2026-08-07 | 6% |
| 2026-08-06 | 6% |
| 2026-08-05 | 7% |
| 2026-08-04 | 7% |
| 2026-08-03 | 7% |
| 2026-08-02 | 6% |
| 2026-08-01 | 6% |
| 2026-07-27 | 7% |
| 2026-07-20 | 5% |
| 2026-07-12 | 6% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 55 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 6% on July 12, 2026 to 3% on September 30, 2026 — a change of 3 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “9.0 or above earthquake before 2027” for 55 days, since July 12, 2026. As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 3%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 6% to 3%, ranging between 3% and 7% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 30, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.