Today’s odds
As of August 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 7%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since July 12, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
7%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 7% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | 7% |
| 2026-08-02 | 6% |
| 2026-08-01 | 6% |
| 2026-07-27 | 7% |
| 2026-07-20 | 5% |
| 2026-07-12 | 6% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027 — what are the odds?
- As of August 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 7%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027 — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 6 tracked days the odds held near 6%, ending at 7% on August 3, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “9.0 or above earthquake before 2027” for 6 days, since July 12, 2026. As of August 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 7%. The chance for a yes has held near 6% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.