Today’s odds
As of August 2, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 4%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 19, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 1 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi | 4% | 4% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Kimi |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | 4% |
| 2026-08-01 | 4% |
| 2026-07-31 | 4% |
| 2026-07-30 | 4% |
| 2026-07-29 | 4% |
| 2026-07-28 | 2% |
| 2026-07-27 | 2% |
| 2026-07-26 | 2% |
| 2026-07-25 | 2% |
| 2026-07-24 | 2% |
| 2026-07-23 | 2% |
| 2026-07-22 | 2% |
| 2026-07-21 | 4% |
| 2026-07-20 | 4% |
| 2026-07-19 | 2% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Best AI on Dec 31, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of August 2, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Best AI on Dec 31, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 15 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 2% on July 19, 2026 to 4% on August 2, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Best AI on Dec 31, 2026” for 15 days, since July 19, 2026. As of August 2, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 4%. The chance for a yes has risen from 2% to 4%, ranging between 2% and 4% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.