Final tracked odds
As of September 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 16%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since September 8, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 12, 2026
16%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 16% | 16% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | 16% |
| 2026-09-11 | 16% |
| 2026-09-10 | 16% |
| 2026-09-09 | 16% |
| 2026-09-08 | 16% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 16%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027 — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 5 tracked days the odds held near 16%, ending at 16% on September 12, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027” for 5 days, since September 8, 2026. As of September 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 16%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 16% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 12, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.