Final tracked odds
As of September 22, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 1.1%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since September 21, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 22, 2026
1.1%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 21 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 1.1% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | 1.1% |
| 2026-09-21 | 3% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 22, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 1.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 3% on September 21, 2026 to 1.1% on September 22, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026” for 2 days, since September 21, 2026. As of September 22, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 1.1%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 3% to 1.1% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 22, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.