Final tracked odds
As of September 21, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.1%.
▼ 42 since the previous update. ▼ 42 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?
Everything Else · tracked since August 27, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 21, 2026
0.1%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 27 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 42% | 0.1% | ▼ 42 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-27 | 42% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 21, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 42% on August 27, 2026 to 0.1% on September 21, 2026 — a change of 42 points.
- Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 2 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.1% and 42%. The final reading of 0.1% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes” for 2 days, since August 27, 2026. As of September 21, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.1%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 42% to 0.1%, ranging between 0.1% and 42% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 21, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.