The Morning Line

Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 27, 2026

16%

Final tracked odds

As of September 27, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 16%.

▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 19Aug 17Aug 29Sep 27Yes — Jul 7: 46%Yes — Sep 27: 16%16%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeSep 20TodayMove
Yes17%16%▼ 1
Full history table
DateYes
2026-09-2716%
2026-09-2017%
2026-09-1918%
2026-09-1819%
2026-09-1332%
2026-09-0830%
2026-09-0634%
2026-09-0534%
2026-08-3133%
2026-08-3030%
2026-08-2926%
2026-08-2836%
2026-08-2741%
2026-08-2634%
2026-08-2534%
2026-08-2430%
2026-08-2322%
2026-08-2222%
2026-08-2125%
2026-08-2027%
2026-08-1922%
2026-08-1718%
2026-08-1518%
2026-07-3024%
2026-07-2924%
2026-07-2823%
2026-07-2630%
2026-07-2532%
2026-07-2433%
2026-07-2328%
2026-07-2230%
2026-07-1924%
2026-07-1830%
2026-07-1730%
2026-07-1630%
2026-07-1530%
2026-07-1430%
2026-07-1330%
2026-07-1140%
2026-07-1046%
2026-07-0946%
2026-07-0746%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, September 27, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 16%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch — did the odds go up or down?
Down. Over the 42 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 46% on July 7, 2026 to 16% on September 27, 2026 — a change of 30 points.
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch — what were the highest and lowest odds?
Over 42 tracked days the odds ranged between 16% and 46%. The final reading of 16% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch” for 42 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 27, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 16%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 46% to 16%, ranging between 16% and 46% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 27, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

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