Final tracked odds
As of September 27, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 16%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 27, 2026
Final tracked odds
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
| Outcome | Sep 20 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 17% | 16% | ▼ 1 |
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 16% |
| 2026-09-20 | 17% |
| 2026-09-19 | 18% |
| 2026-09-18 | 19% |
| 2026-09-13 | 32% |
| 2026-09-08 | 30% |
| 2026-09-06 | 34% |
| 2026-09-05 | 34% |
| 2026-08-31 | 33% |
| 2026-08-30 | 30% |
| 2026-08-29 | 26% |
| 2026-08-28 | 36% |
| 2026-08-27 | 41% |
| 2026-08-26 | 34% |
| 2026-08-25 | 34% |
| 2026-08-24 | 30% |
| 2026-08-23 | 22% |
| 2026-08-22 | 22% |
| 2026-08-21 | 25% |
| 2026-08-20 | 27% |
| 2026-08-19 | 22% |
| 2026-08-17 | 18% |
| 2026-08-15 | 18% |
| 2026-07-30 | 24% |
| 2026-07-29 | 24% |
| 2026-07-28 | 23% |
| 2026-07-26 | 30% |
| 2026-07-25 | 32% |
| 2026-07-24 | 33% |
| 2026-07-23 | 28% |
| 2026-07-22 | 30% |
| 2026-07-19 | 24% |
| 2026-07-18 | 30% |
| 2026-07-17 | 30% |
| 2026-07-16 | 30% |
| 2026-07-15 | 30% |
| 2026-07-14 | 30% |
| 2026-07-13 | 30% |
| 2026-07-11 | 40% |
| 2026-07-10 | 46% |
| 2026-07-09 | 46% |
| 2026-07-07 | 46% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch” for 42 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 27, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 16%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 46% to 16%, ranging between 16% and 46% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 27, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.