Final tracked odds
As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 16%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 6 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since August 19, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 4, 2026
16%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 19% | 16% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 16% |
| 2026-10-03 | 19% |
| 2026-09-30 | 27% |
| 2026-09-29 | 34% |
| 2026-09-28 | 22% |
| 2026-09-25 | 23% |
| 2026-08-21 | 46% |
| 2026-08-20 | 55% |
| 2026-08-19 | 57% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 16%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 9 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 57% on August 19, 2026 to 16% on October 4, 2026 — a change of 41 points.
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 9 tracked days the odds ranged between 16% and 57%. The final reading of 16% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31” for 9 days, since August 19, 2026. As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 16%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 57% to 16%, ranging between 16% and 57% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.