Final tracked odds
As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.4%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?
Everything Else · tracked since August 6, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 30, 2026
0.4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 29 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.8% | 0.4% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-29 | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-28 | 2% |
| 2026-09-27 | 2% |
| 2026-09-26 | 3% |
| 2026-09-25 | 3% |
| 2026-09-24 | 3% |
| 2026-09-23 | 3% |
| 2026-09-22 | 4% |
| 2026-09-21 | 6% |
| 2026-09-20 | 8% |
| 2026-09-19 | 6% |
| 2026-08-17 | 14% |
| 2026-08-16 | 14% |
| 2026-08-06 | 22% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Iran full airspace closure by September 30 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Iran full airspace closure by September 30 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 15 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 22% on August 6, 2026 to 0.4% on September 30, 2026 — a change of 22 points.
- Iran full airspace closure by September 30 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 15 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.4% and 22%. The final reading of 0.4% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Iran full airspace closure by September 30” for 15 days, since August 6, 2026. As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.4%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 22% to 0.4%, ranging between 0.4% and 22% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 30, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.