Final tracked odds
As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Iran leadership change by October 31?
Everything Else · tracked since September 2, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 4, 2026
2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 2% |
| 2026-10-03 | 2% |
| 2026-10-02 | 2% |
| 2026-10-01 | 3% |
| 2026-09-24 | 3% |
| 2026-09-23 | 4% |
| 2026-09-22 | 4% |
| 2026-09-21 | 4% |
| 2026-09-06 | 6% |
| 2026-09-05 | 6% |
| 2026-09-04 | 6% |
| 2026-09-02 | 6% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Iran leadership change by October 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Iran leadership change by October 31 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 12 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 6% on September 2, 2026 to 2% on October 4, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Iran leadership change by October 31” for 12 days, since September 2, 2026. As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 6% to 2%, ranging between 2% and 6% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.