Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, October 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 14%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31 — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 9 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 28% on September 6, 2026 to 14% on October 4, 2026 — a change of 14 points.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 9 tracked days the odds ranged between 14% and 70%. The final reading of 14% sits at the bottom of that range.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since September 6, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 4, 2026

14%

Final tracked odds

As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 14%.

▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 56 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Oct 3	Today	Move
Yes	16%	14%	▼ 1

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-10-04	14%
2026-10-03	16%
2026-10-02	18%
2026-10-01	17%
2026-09-30	23%
2026-09-29	26%
2026-09-13	70%
2026-09-07	39%
2026-09-06	28%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, October 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 14%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31 — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 9 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 28% on September 6, 2026 to 14% on October 4, 2026 — a change of 14 points.
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 9 tracked days the odds ranged between 14% and 70%. The final reading of 14% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31” for 9 days, since September 6, 2026. As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 14%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 28% to 14%, ranging between 14% and 70% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.