Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30 — what are the odds?

As of September 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 17%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30 — have the odds gone up or down?

Down. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 25% on September 1, 2026 to 17% on September 3, 2026 — a change of 8 points.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30 — what are the highest and lowest odds?

Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 17% and 25%. The current reading of 17% sits at the bottom of that range.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since September 1, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET

17%

Today’s odds

As of September 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 17%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 8 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 2	Today	Move
Yes	18%	17%	—

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-09-03	17%
2026-09-02	18%
2026-09-01	25%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30 — what are the odds?: As of September 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 17%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30 — have the odds gone up or down?: Down. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 25% on September 1, 2026 to 17% on September 3, 2026 — a change of 8 points.
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30 — what are the highest and lowest odds?: Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 17% and 25%. The current reading of 17% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30” for 3 days, since September 1, 2026. As of September 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 17%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 25% to 17%, ranging between 17% and 25% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.