Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, September 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 18%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30 — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 25% on September 1, 2026 to 18% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 7 points.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 16% and 25%. The final reading of 18% sits inside that range.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since September 1, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 6, 2026

18%

Final tracked odds

As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 18%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 7 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 5	Today	Move
Yes	18%	18%	—

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-09-06	18%
2026-09-05	18%
2026-09-04	18%
2026-09-03	16%
2026-09-02	18%
2026-09-01	25%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, September 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 18%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30 — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 25% on September 1, 2026 to 18% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 7 points.
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 16% and 25%. The final reading of 18% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30” for 6 days, since September 1, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 18%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 25% to 18%, ranging between 16% and 25% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 6, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.