Final tracked odds
As of July 9, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 10%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 9, 2026
10%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 8 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 10% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | 10% |
| 2026-07-08 | 10% |
| 2026-07-07 | 6% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Israel closes its airspace by July 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, July 9, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 10%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Israel closes its airspace by July 31 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 6% on July 7, 2026 to 10% on July 9, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Israel closes its airspace by July 31” for 3 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 9, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 10%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 6% to 10%, ranging between 6% and 10% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 9, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.