Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 13 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
Everything Else · tracked since October 1, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
6%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 6% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 6% |
| 2026-10-11 | 6% |
| 2026-10-10 | 6% |
| 2026-10-09 | 6% |
| 2026-10-02 | 20% |
| 2026-10-01 | 26% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31 — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 26% on October 1, 2026 to 6% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 20 points.
- Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 6% and 26%. The current reading of 6% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31” for 6 days, since October 1, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 26% to 6%, ranging between 6% and 26% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.