Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 28%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since August 16, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
28%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 27 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 28% | 28% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 28% |
| 2026-09-27 | 28% |
| 2026-09-22 | 24% |
| 2026-09-20 | 32% |
| 2026-09-19 | 25% |
| 2026-09-18 | 24% |
| 2026-09-17 | 22% |
| 2026-09-16 | 24% |
| 2026-09-15 | 24% |
| 2026-09-14 | 28% |
| 2026-09-13 | 27% |
| 2026-09-12 | 24% |
| 2026-09-11 | 32% |
| 2026-09-10 | 32% |
| 2026-09-09 | 28% |
| 2026-09-08 | 26% |
| 2026-09-07 | 28% |
| 2026-09-06 | 28% |
| 2026-09-04 | 28% |
| 2026-08-23 | 27% |
| 2026-08-22 | 28% |
| 2026-08-21 | 30% |
| 2026-08-20 | 31% |
| 2026-08-19 | 31% |
| 2026-08-18 | 32% |
| 2026-08-17 | 35% |
| 2026-08-16 | 30% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Iran full airspace closure by December 31 — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 28%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Iran full airspace closure by December 31 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 27 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 30% on August 16, 2026 to 28% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
- Iran full airspace closure by December 31 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 27 tracked days the odds ranged between 22% and 35%. The current reading of 28% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Iran full airspace closure by December 31” for 27 days, since August 16, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 28%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 30% to 28%, ranging between 22% and 35% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.