Today’s odds
As of September 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 28%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since August 16, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
28%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 23 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 27% | 28% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 28% |
| 2026-08-23 | 27% |
| 2026-08-22 | 28% |
| 2026-08-21 | 30% |
| 2026-08-20 | 31% |
| 2026-08-19 | 31% |
| 2026-08-18 | 32% |
| 2026-08-17 | 35% |
| 2026-08-16 | 30% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Iran full airspace closure by December 31 — what are the odds?
- As of September 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 28%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Iran full airspace closure by December 31 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 9 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 30% on August 16, 2026 to 28% on September 4, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
- Iran full airspace closure by December 31 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 9 tracked days the odds ranged between 27% and 35%. The current reading of 28% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Iran full airspace closure by December 31” for 9 days, since August 16, 2026. As of September 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 28%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 30% to 28%, ranging between 27% and 35% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.