Today’s odds
As of August 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 100.0%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?
Politics · tracked since August 2, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
100.0%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 99.9% | 100.0% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | 100.0% |
| 2026-08-05 | 99.9% |
| 2026-08-02 | 96% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4 — what are the odds?
- As of August 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 100.0%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 96% on August 2, 2026 to 100.0% on August 6, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4” for 3 days, since August 2, 2026. As of August 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 100.0%. The chance for a yes has risen from 96% to 100.0%, ranging between 96% and 100.0% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.