Final tracked odds
As of September 11, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 16%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 22 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 12, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 11, 2026
16%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 10 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 19% | 16% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | 16% |
| 2026-09-10 | 19% |
| 2026-09-09 | 20% |
| 2026-09-08 | 26% |
| 2026-09-07 | 24% |
| 2026-07-31 | 38% |
| 2026-07-30 | 36% |
| 2026-07-29 | 36% |
| 2026-07-28 | 40% |
| 2026-07-27 | 38% |
| 2026-07-14 | 36% |
| 2026-07-12 | 33% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 11, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 16%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 12 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 33% on July 12, 2026 to 16% on September 11, 2026 — a change of 17 points.
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 12 tracked days the odds ranged between 16% and 40%. The final reading of 16% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026” for 12 days, since July 12, 2026. As of September 11, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 16%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 33% to 16%, ranging between 16% and 40% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 11, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.