The Morning Line

What will Donald Trump say during the United Nations General Assembly?

Everything Else · tracked since September 4, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 21, 2026

65%

Final tracked odds

As of September 21, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 65%.

▲ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 68% on September 21, 2026. Board of Peace won.

How the odds have moved

0%25%50%75%100%Sep 4Sep 6Sep 7Sep 8Sep 21Board of Peace — Sep 20: 63%Board of Peace — Sep 21: 65%65%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeSep 20TodayMove
Board of Peace63%65%▲ 2
Full history table
DateBoard of Peace
2026-09-2165%
2026-09-2063%
2026-09-08—
2026-09-07—
2026-09-06—
2026-09-05—
2026-09-04—

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

What will Donald Trump say during the United Nations General Assembly — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, September 21, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 65%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
What will Donald Trump say during the United Nations General Assembly — did the odds go up or down?
Up. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 63% on September 20, 2026 to 65% on September 21, 2026 — a change of 2 points.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “What will Donald Trump say during the United Nations General Assembly” for 2 days, since September 4, 2026. As of September 21, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 65%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 63% to 65%, ranging between 63% and 65% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 21, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

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