The Morning Line

Who will win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

World Cup · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 19, 2026

0.1%

Final tracked odds

As of July 19, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Harry Kane leads at 0.1%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Harry KaneDeclan Rice
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 10Jul 13Jul 16Jul 19Harry Kane — Jul 7: 8%Harry Kane — Jul 12: 5%Harry Kane — Jul 13: 5%Harry Kane — Jul 19: 0.1%0.1%Declan Rice — Jul 7: 0.1%Declan Rice — Jul 8: 0.2%Declan Rice — Jul 9: 0.1%Declan Rice — Jul 10: 0.1%Declan Rice — Jul 11: 0.1%Declan Rice — Jul 12: 0.1%Declan Rice — Jul 13: 0.1%Declan Rice — Jul 14: 0.1%Declan Rice — Jul 15: 0.1%Declan Rice — Jul 16: 0.1%Declan Rice — Jul 17: 0.1%Declan Rice — Jul 18: 0.1%Declan Rice — Jul 19: 0.1%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 18TodayMove
Harry Kane—0.1%—
Declan Rice0.1%0.1%—
Full history table
DateHarry KaneDeclan Rice
2026-07-190.1%0.1%
2026-07-18—0.1%
2026-07-17—0.1%
2026-07-16—0.1%
2026-07-15—0.1%
2026-07-14—0.1%
2026-07-135%0.1%
2026-07-125%0.1%
2026-07-11—0.1%
2026-07-10—0.1%
2026-07-09—0.1%
2026-07-08—0.2%
2026-07-078%0.1%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, July 19, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — did the odds go up or down?
Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 8% on July 7, 2026 to 0.1% on July 19, 2026 — a change of 8 points.
Who will win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — what were the highest and lowest odds?
Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.1% and 8%. The final reading of 0.1% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup” for 4 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 19, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — Harry Kane leads at 0.1%. The final tracked chance for the leading outcome has fallen from 8% to 0.1%, ranging between 0.1% and 8% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 19, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

Related questions

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.