Today’s odds
As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 3%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will at least 50% of scheduled passenger and cargo flights at JFK be cancelled October 21, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 28, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
3%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 50% | 3% | 3% | — |
Full history table
| Date | At least 50% |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 3% |
| 2026-07-28 | 3% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will at least 50% of scheduled passenger and cargo flights at JFK be cancelled October 21, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of July 29, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will at least 50% of scheduled passenger and cargo flights at JFK be cancelled October 21, 2026” for 2 days, since July 28, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 3%. The chance for a yes has held near 3% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.