Final tracked odds
As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.
▼ 14 since the previous update. ▼ 14 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Brian Jordan receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-05 House election?
Politics · tracked since September 12, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 28, 2026
2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 21 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 3% | 16% | 2% | ▼ 14 |
Full history table
| Date | At least 3% |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | 2% |
| 2026-09-21 | 16% |
| 2026-09-14 | 16% |
| 2026-09-13 | 8% |
| 2026-09-12 | 6% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Brian Jordan receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-05 House election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 28, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Brian Jordan receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-05 House election — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 6% on September 12, 2026 to 2% on September 28, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
- Will Brian Jordan receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-05 House election — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 2% and 16%. The final reading of 2% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Brian Jordan receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-05 House election” for 5 days, since September 12, 2026. As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 6% to 2%, ranging between 2% and 16% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 28, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.