Today’s odds
As of August 7, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 76%.
▲ 27 since the previous update. ▲ 29 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since August 5, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
76%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 6 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 49% | 76% | ▲ 27 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | 76% |
| 2026-08-06 | 49% |
| 2026-08-05 | 48% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of August 7, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 76%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 48% on August 5, 2026 to 76% on August 7, 2026 — a change of 28 points.
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 48% and 76%. The current reading of 76% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026” for 3 days, since August 5, 2026. As of August 7, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 76%. The chance for a yes has risen from 48% to 76%, ranging between 48% and 76% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.