Will Carlos Alcaraz win set 1 in the Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen match?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will Carlos Alcaraz win set 1 in the Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen match?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Tennis · tracked since September 28, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 30, 2026

78%

Final tracked odds

As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 78%.

▲ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 78% on September 30, 2026. Carlos Alcaraz won.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 29	Today	Move
Carlos Alcaraz	76%	78%	▲ 2

Full history table

Date	Carlos Alcaraz
2026-09-30	78%
2026-09-29	76%
2026-09-28	76%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Carlos Alcaraz win set 1 in the Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen match — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, September 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 78%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Carlos Alcaraz win set 1 in the Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen match — did the odds go up or down?: Up. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 76% on September 28, 2026 to 78% on September 30, 2026 — a change of 2 points.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Carlos Alcaraz win set 1 in the Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen match” for 3 days, since September 28, 2026. As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 78%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 76% to 78% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 30, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.