Final tracked odds
As of July 11, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 10%.
▲ 2 since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
What happened: The market said 10% on July 11, 2026. It didn't happen.
Will Elisha Ellison win the Steveson vs Ellison professional MMA fight scheduled for Jul 11, 2026?
UFC · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 11, 2026
10%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 10 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elisha Ellison | 8% | 10% | ▲ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Elisha Ellison |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | 10% |
| 2026-07-10 | 8% |
| 2026-07-09 | 9% |
| 2026-07-08 | 9% |
| 2026-07-07 | 9% |
| 2026-07-06 * | 10% |
| 2026-07-05 * | 8% |
| 2026-07-04 * | 10% |
| 2026-07-03 * | 10% |
| 2026-07-02 * | 13% |
| 2026-07-01 * | 10% |
| 2026-06-30 * | 15% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Elisha Ellison win the Steveson vs Ellison professional MMA fight scheduled for Jul 11, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, July 11, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 10%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Elisha Ellison win the Steveson vs Ellison professional MMA fight scheduled for Jul 11, 2026 — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 5 tracked days the odds held near 9%, ending at 10% on July 11, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Elisha Ellison win the Steveson vs Ellison professional MMA fight scheduled for Jul 11, 2026” for 5 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 11, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 10%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 9% to 10% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 11, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.