Today’s odds
As of August 27, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 14%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
14%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 26 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | 14% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | 14% |
| 2026-08-26 | 14% |
| 2026-08-25 | 14% |
| 2026-08-24 | 12% |
| 2026-08-23 | 13% |
| 2026-08-22 | 11% |
| 2026-08-21 | 11% |
| 2026-08-20 | 10% |
| 2026-08-19 | 12% |
| 2026-07-31 | 14% |
| 2026-07-30 | 17% |
| 2026-07-29 | 18% |
| 2026-07-28 | 18% |
| 2026-07-26 | 15% |
| 2026-07-25 | 15% |
| 2026-07-24 | 14% |
| 2026-07-23 | 16% |
| 2026-07-22 | 16% |
| 2026-07-19 | 14% |
| 2026-07-18 | 14% |
| 2026-07-17 | 14% |
| 2026-07-16 | 16% |
| 2026-07-15 | 11% |
| 2026-07-14 | 16% |
| 2026-07-13 | 18% |
| 2026-07-11 | 16% |
| 2026-07-10 | 14% |
| 2026-07-09 | 15% |
| 2026-07-08 | 16% |
| 2026-07-07 | 14% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of August 27, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 14%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026 — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 30 tracked days the odds held near 14%, ending at 14% on August 27, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
- Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 30 tracked days the odds ranged between 10% and 18%. The current reading of 14% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026” for 30 days, since July 7, 2026. As of August 27, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 14%. The chance for a yes has held near 14%, ranging between 10% and 18% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.