Final tracked odds
As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 12%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 30, 2026
12%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 13% | 12% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 12% |
| 2026-09-28 | 13% |
| 2026-09-27 | 12% |
| 2026-09-26 | 12% |
| 2026-09-25 | 11% |
| 2026-09-24 | 11% |
| 2026-09-23 | 13% |
| 2026-09-22 | 12% |
| 2026-09-21 | 14% |
| 2026-09-20 | 14% |
| 2026-09-19 | 14% |
| 2026-09-18 | 14% |
| 2026-09-17 | 12% |
| 2026-09-16 | 14% |
| 2026-09-15 | 14% |
| 2026-09-14 | 15% |
| 2026-09-13 | 12% |
| 2026-09-12 | 11% |
| 2026-09-11 | 12% |
| 2026-09-10 | 11% |
| 2026-09-09 | 12% |
| 2026-09-08 | 12% |
| 2026-09-07 | 14% |
| 2026-09-06 | 14% |
| 2026-09-05 | 13% |
| 2026-09-04 | 14% |
| 2026-09-03 | 14% |
| 2026-09-02 | 16% |
| 2026-08-31 | 16% |
| 2026-08-30 | 16% |
| 2026-08-29 | 14% |
| 2026-08-28 | 14% |
| 2026-08-27 | 14% |
| 2026-08-26 | 14% |
| 2026-08-25 | 14% |
| 2026-08-24 | 12% |
| 2026-08-23 | 13% |
| 2026-08-22 | 11% |
| 2026-08-21 | 11% |
| 2026-08-20 | 10% |
| 2026-08-19 | 12% |
| 2026-07-31 | 14% |
| 2026-07-30 | 17% |
| 2026-07-29 | 18% |
| 2026-07-28 | 18% |
| 2026-07-26 | 15% |
| 2026-07-25 | 15% |
| 2026-07-24 | 14% |
| 2026-07-23 | 16% |
| 2026-07-22 | 16% |
| 2026-07-19 | 14% |
| 2026-07-18 | 14% |
| 2026-07-17 | 14% |
| 2026-07-16 | 16% |
| 2026-07-15 | 11% |
| 2026-07-14 | 16% |
| 2026-07-13 | 18% |
| 2026-07-11 | 16% |
| 2026-07-10 | 14% |
| 2026-07-09 | 15% |
| 2026-07-08 | 16% |
| 2026-07-07 | 14% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 12%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 62 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 14% on July 7, 2026 to 12% on September 30, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
- Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 62 tracked days the odds ranged between 10% and 18%. The final reading of 12% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026” for 62 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 12%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 14% to 12%, ranging between 10% and 18% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 30, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.