Final tracked odds
As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 12%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 6 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 12, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 30, 2026
12%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 29 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | 12% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 12% |
| 2026-09-29 | 14% |
| 2026-09-28 | 14% |
| 2026-09-27 | 12% |
| 2026-09-26 | 12% |
| 2026-09-25 | 16% |
| 2026-09-24 | 17% |
| 2026-09-23 | 17% |
| 2026-09-22 | 18% |
| 2026-09-21 | 16% |
| 2026-08-17 | 21% |
| 2026-07-19 | 26% |
| 2026-07-18 | 26% |
| 2026-07-17 | 26% |
| 2026-07-12 | 32% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 12%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 15 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 32% on July 12, 2026 to 12% on September 30, 2026 — a change of 20 points.
- Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 15 tracked days the odds ranged between 12% and 32%. The final reading of 12% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026” for 15 days, since July 12, 2026. As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 12%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 32% to 12%, ranging between 12% and 32% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 30, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.