Today’s odds
As of August 9, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 21%.
▲ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 21 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since July 8, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
21%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 6 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 18% | 21% | ▲ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | 21% |
| 2026-08-06 | 18% |
| 2026-08-05 | 19% |
| 2026-07-09 | 42% |
| 2026-07-08 | 38% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 — what are the odds?
- As of August 9, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 21%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 38% on July 8, 2026 to 21% on August 9, 2026 — a change of 17 points.
- Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 18% and 42%. The current reading of 21% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31” for 5 days, since July 8, 2026. As of August 9, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 21%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 38% to 21%, ranging between 18% and 42% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.