Final tracked odds
As of September 14, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 3%.
▼ 3 since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least 1,000,000 people have each been issued at least $100 in payments under the same new federal program for the general public presented by the Trump administration as a dividend, rebate, or equivalent return of government revenue or savings before Jan 1, 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since September 10, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 14, 2026
3%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 13 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 3% | ▼ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | 3% |
| 2026-09-13 | 6% |
| 2026-09-12 | 4% |
| 2026-09-11 | 3% |
| 2026-09-10 | 6% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least 1,000,000 people have each been issued at least $100 in payments under the same new federal program for the general public presented by the Trump administration as a dividend, rebate, or equivalent return of government revenue or savings before Jan 1, 2027 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 14, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least 1,000,000 people have each been issued at least $100 in payments under the same new federal program for the general public presented by the Trump administration as a dividend, rebate, or equivalent return of government revenue or savings before Jan 1, 2027 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 6% on September 10, 2026 to 3% on September 14, 2026 — a change of 3 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least 1,000,000 people have each been issued at least $100 in payments under the same new federal program for the general public presented by the Trump administration as a dividend, rebate, or equivalent return of government revenue or savings before Jan 1, 2027” for 5 days, since September 10, 2026. As of September 14, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 3%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 6% to 3%, ranging between 3% and 6% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 14, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.