Final tracked odds
As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 4%.
▼ 13 since the previous update. ▼ 19 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diesel that has gone into effect before Nov 3, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since September 22, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 5, 2026
4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 29 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 17% | 4% | ▼ 13 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 4% |
| 2026-09-29 | 17% |
| 2026-09-28 | 23% |
| 2026-09-23 | 62% |
| 2026-09-22 | 23% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diesel that has gone into effect before Nov 3, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diesel that has gone into effect before Nov 3, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 23% on September 22, 2026 to 4% on October 5, 2026 — a change of 19 points.
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diesel that has gone into effect before Nov 3, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 4% and 62%. The final reading of 4% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diesel that has gone into effect before Nov 3, 2026” for 5 days, since September 22, 2026. As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 4%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 23% to 4%, ranging between 4% and 62% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.