The Morning Line

Will Justin Thomas win the The Open Championship?

Golf · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 18, 2026

0.2%

Final tracked odds

As of July 18, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.2%.

▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 0.4% on July 18, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

tracking begins0%25%50%75%100%Jun 22Jun 28Jul 5Jul 12Jul 18Justin Thomas — Jun 22: 1.0%Justin Thomas — Jun 23: 3%Justin Thomas — Jun 24: 3%Justin Thomas — Jun 25: 3%Justin Thomas — Jun 26: 3%Justin Thomas — Jun 27: 3%Justin Thomas — Jun 28: 3%Justin Thomas — Jun 29: 1.4%Justin Thomas — Jun 30: 2%Justin Thomas — Jul 1: 2%Justin Thomas — Jul 2: 2%Justin Thomas — Jul 3: 2%Justin Thomas — Jul 4: 2%Justin Thomas — Jul 5: 2%Justin Thomas — Jul 6: 2%Justin Thomas — Jul 7: 1.5%Justin Thomas — Jul 8: 1.4%Justin Thomas — Jul 9: 1.4%Justin Thomas — Jul 10: 1.4%Justin Thomas — Jul 11: 0.9%Justin Thomas — Jul 12: 1.1%Justin Thomas — Jul 13: 1.4%Justin Thomas — Jul 14: 1.4%Justin Thomas — Jul 15: 1.2%Justin Thomas — Jul 16: 0.5%Justin Thomas — Jul 17: 0.8%Justin Thomas — Jul 18: 0.2%0.2%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 17TodayMove
Justin Thomas0.8%0.2%▼ 1
Full history table
DateJustin Thomas
2026-07-180.2%
2026-07-170.8%
2026-07-160.5%
2026-07-151.2%
2026-07-141.4%
2026-07-131.4%
2026-07-121.1%
2026-07-110.9%
2026-07-101.4%
2026-07-091.4%
2026-07-081.4%
2026-07-071.5%
2026-07-06 *2%
2026-07-05 *2%
2026-07-04 *2%
2026-07-03 *2%
2026-07-02 *2%
2026-07-01 *2%
2026-06-30 *2%
2026-06-29 *1.4%
2026-06-28 *3%
2026-06-27 *3%
2026-06-26 *3%
2026-06-25 *3%
2026-06-24 *3%
2026-06-23 *3%
2026-06-22 *1.0%

* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Justin Thomas win the The Open Championship — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, July 18, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Justin Thomas win the The Open Championship — how much did the odds move?
Barely. Across 12 tracked days the odds held near 1.5%, ending at 0.2% on July 18, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Justin Thomas win the The Open Championship” for 12 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 18, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 1.5% to 0.2% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 18, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

Related questions

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.