The Morning Line

Will Lionel Messi or Kylian Mbappé have more goals in the FIFA World Cup?

World Cup · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 19, 2026

90%

Final tracked odds

As of July 19, 2026, market-consensus odds make Kylian Mbappé the most likely outcome at 90%.

▲ 51 since the previous update. ▲ 36 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 88% on July 19, 2026. Kylian Mbappé won.

How the odds have moved

Kylian MbappéTieLionel Messi
tracking begins0%25%50%75%100%Jun 17Jun 25Jul 3Jul 11Jul 19Kylian Mbappé — Jun 17: 1.0%Kylian Mbappé — Jul 19: 90%90%Tie — Jun 17: 1.0%Tie — Jul 19: 8%Lionel Messi — Jun 17: 1.0%Lionel Messi — Jul 19: 4%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 18TodayMove
Kylian Mbappé38%90%▲ 51
Tie38%8%▼ 30
Lionel Messi24%4%▼ 20
Full history table
DateKylian MbappéTieLionel Messi
2026-07-1990%8%4%
2026-07-1838%38%24%
2026-07-1734%40%26%
2026-07-1631%40%26%
2026-07-1526%44%30%
2026-07-1448%22%28%
2026-07-1348%22%30%
2026-07-1254%18%30%
2026-07-1145%16%43%
2026-07-1045%16%42%
2026-07-0936%16%46%
2026-07-0838%16%50%
2026-07-0752%10%44%
2026-07-06 *60%11%37%
2026-07-05 *64%9%34%
2026-07-04 *57%11%44%
2026-07-03 *57%9%41%
2026-07-02 *61%8%42%
2026-07-01 *54%11%47%
2026-06-30 *36%7%62%
2026-06-29 *37%8%59%
2026-06-28 *44%4%79%
2026-06-27 *43%5%57%
2026-06-26 *50%5%49%
2026-06-25 *51%4%49%
2026-06-24 *49%8%47%
2026-06-23 *68%18%61%
2026-06-22 *54%5%46%
2026-06-21 *81%7%51%
2026-06-20 *54%2%48%
2026-06-19 *51%11%41%
2026-06-18 *44%13%44%
2026-06-17 *1.0%1.0%1.0%

* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Lionel Messi or Kylian Mbappé have more goals in the FIFA World Cup — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, July 19, 2026, Kylian Mbappé led at 90%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Lionel Messi or Kylian Mbappé have more goals in the FIFA World Cup — did the odds go up or down?
Up. Over the 13 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 52% on July 7, 2026 to 90% on July 19, 2026 — a change of 38 points.
Will Lionel Messi or Kylian Mbappé have more goals in the FIFA World Cup — what were the highest and lowest odds?
Over 13 tracked days the odds ranged between 26% and 90%. The final reading of 90% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Lionel Messi or Kylian Mbappé have more goals in the FIFA World Cup” for 13 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 19, 2026, Kylian Mbappé leads the field at 90%. The final tracked chance for Kylian Mbappé has risen from 52% to 90%, ranging between 26% and 90% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 19, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

Related questions

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.