Will Lionel Messi score 10+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 13 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 53% on July 7, 2026 to 10% on July 19, 2026 — a change of 43 points.

Will Lionel Messi score 10+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 13 tracked days the odds ranged between 9% and 62%. The final reading of 10% sits inside that range.

Will Lionel Messi score 10+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will Lionel Messi score 10+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

World Cup · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 19, 2026

10%

Final tracked odds

As of July 19, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 10%.

▲ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 17 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 10% on July 19, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Jul 18	Today	Move
10+ goals	9%	10%	▲ 2

Full history table

Date	10+ goals
2026-07-19	10%
2026-07-18	9%
2026-07-17	10%
2026-07-16	11%
2026-07-15	14%
2026-07-14	32%
2026-07-13	30%
2026-07-12	28%
2026-07-11	52%
2026-07-10	54%
2026-07-09	48%
2026-07-08	62%
2026-07-07	53%
2026-07-06 *	51%
2026-07-05 *	48%
2026-07-04 *	98%
2026-07-03 *	83%
2026-07-02 *	63%
2026-07-01 *	70%
2026-06-30 *	70%
2026-06-29 *	69%
2026-06-28 *	57%
2026-06-27 *	58%
2026-06-26 *	58%
2026-06-25 *	59%
2026-06-24 *	70%
2026-06-23 *	31%
2026-06-22 *	3%
2026-06-21 *	18%
2026-06-20 *	12%
2026-06-19 *	1.0%
2026-06-18 *	0%

* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Lionel Messi score 10+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, July 19, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 10%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Lionel Messi score 10+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 13 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 53% on July 7, 2026 to 10% on July 19, 2026 — a change of 43 points.
Will Lionel Messi score 10+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 13 tracked days the odds ranged between 9% and 62%. The final reading of 10% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Lionel Messi score 10+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup” for 13 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 19, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 10%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 53% to 10%, ranging between 9% and 62% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 19, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.